Deborah, Nov.22, 2021

Tegnell has previously refused to consider vax passports, saying their efficacy was questionable and even referencing the protests going on throughout Europe.

The new rule is the requirement to present proof of vaccination for indoor public events of greater than 100 people, beginning December 1st. You can present a medical exemption, but a negative PCR test will not be accepted.

You are quite right that we currently have low hospitalizations and ICU admissions. As of Thursday we had 31 covid patients in the ICU, less than 10% of current ICU capacity. Other information: those dying in Sweden tend to be the vaxxed over 70+. Those in the ICU tend to be the unvaxxed over 70+. Important to remember that vaccination rates are extremely high (>90%) for those most at risk, and fall off in the younger age categories. It seems that uptake of first doses has really dropped off - ie. anyone who wanted to be vaxxed, is vaxxed. I would have thought that we had reached a sort of manageable status quo.

So it is impossible to make a convincing case for increased restrictions given our domestic situation. Instead the narrative for this unexpected development is that cases are surging all over Europe and it is a pre-emptive measure. They also said they are ready to impose vax passports in other situations (ex. restaurants, museums, gyms) if cases go up - and yet refused to say what case level would trigger this. Other measures may be added as well - Tegnell stated un-ironically: "“Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands have shown us that vax passports alone are not sufficient if infection rates are rapidly rising”.

There was finally some pushback from the usually docile pool of journalists:

Journalist 1: You previously said that vax passports for restaurants, museums and gyms in Denmark was problematic - both practically and morally/ethically? Is that how you see the situation today?

Tegnell: No, the situation has changed. Everyone has now had the opportunity to get vaccinated, which makes it easier to separate the vaccinated and the unvaccinated “from an ethical, moral perspective” (Deb: a rather chilling comment). Also there are now solutions that have been tested in many countries that we have a dialogue with (Deb: EU exerting pressure?). Now it is time to test whether vax passports have an effect.

Journalist 2: What evidence do we have that being vaccinated reduces transmission?

Tegnell: There aren’t any good studies on this (Deb: !!!). One can see indirectly that the rate of infection has been reduced in countries that have quickly increased their vaccination coverage, for example Israel, both after their first dose and their third. There are smaller studies that suggest being vaccinated reduces the possibility of being inflected by 50-60%, and other studies that the vaccinated are 50% less likely to spread the disease. So there is an effect, but it is not 100%.

Journalist 2: There are studies that suggest the vaccinated and unvaccinated spread at the same rate?

Tegnell: You are talking about virus levels; I am talking about what happens at home, where the greatest number of infections happen.

My analysis: Many are suggesting that Tegnell has lost a political battle. There are a few developments that need mentioning - Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven will leave as head of the Social Democrats, to be replaced by Magdalena Andersson, if she gets enough votes this coming Wednesday in Parliament. The chat is that she pushed hard to look like she is doing something re: covid, aided by the leader of the opposition, which has wanted stricter measures since the beginning of the pandemic. I also smell the EU behind this, pushing for some co-ordinated effort. In addition, the head of the Public Health Authority just retired. So I think a vacuum was created and a lot of political actors were finally able to flex their muscles. Some say that Tegnell’s answer, re “no good studies”, is a subtle form of sabotage, but having watched the press conference, I’d say he sadly and shamefully seems to be supportive of this.